Traders swing from Likud to Yashar in Israel's seat race

Traders now make Yashar the favourite, with Likud's odds down 20 points in a week.

In one line: Yashar finishes ahead of Likud in the 27 October Knesset count, an outcome the 68% Polymarket price still underrates.

Traders have cut Likud's chance of winning the most seats in Israel's 27 October Knesset election from 52% on 10 Oct to 32% today, a fall of 20 points over the week. The fall had two stages. Likud reached a 30% low on 14 Oct, recovered, then lost 7pp in the last 24 hours. The vote is 11 days away.

Polymarket prices the race as a two-party contest. Yashar, the only rival with a live price, trades at 68% to win the most seats. The Together contract sits at 0%. Separate contracts on Likud's seat tally give a 25% chance that it wins fewer than 20 seats and 9% that it lands on 30 to 34.

The evidence is thin, and all of it sits in the price. The telling part is the failed rebound. Likud climbed off its 14 Oct low, then gave back 7 points in a single day. A swing that survives a counter-move carries more weight than a single lurch. The party opened the week as a narrow favourite and now trails 32% to 68%.

Yashar probably wins the most seats on 27 October, and on the price path alone, 68% still looks too low for that outcome. The official count, due before the contract resolves on 28 Oct, would prove this wrong by showing Likud as the largest party, and an earlier warning would be Likud's contract regaining 52%, its 10 Oct level, before polling day. The best case against is Likud's recovery from 30%, which shows traders still willing to back it; if that recovery repeats and holds, the turn this week was overdone.