Traders revive the bet that Zacharia leaves by year end

Polymarket's year-end contract rebounds from a 12% low as Kalshi prices the same exit at 48%.

In one line: Zacharia is still White House press secretary on 31 December, with no exit announced; Polymarket's 42% and Kalshi's 48% both overrate her going.

Polymarket's contract on Katie Zacharia leaving the post of White House Press Secretary by 31 December posted both 50% and 12% on 13 Oct. The 7-day path closes at 39% on 16 Oct, 27 points above that low and 11 points below where the window opened. The latest quote is 42%, up 16.5 points in the last 24 hours by the venue's own figure.

Kalshi asks the same question, an exit before 1 January 2027, and prices it at 48%. Polymarket puts the odds at 42% and Kalshi at 48%, both just short of even, with Kalshi the higher. The contracts on earlier dates sit far lower. Kalshi has 4% for an exit before 20 Oct, 8% before 24 Oct and 13% before 1 Nov, and Polymarket's October contract trades at 10%. Kalshi's contract for an exit before 1 July 2027 stands at 72%.

The curve says traders see no departure this month but close to even odds by the new year, which puts most of the year-end weight on November and December. A price that posted both 50% and 12% on 13 Oct has not settled, and the earlier-dated contracts carry the firmer signal. The 72% for an exit before July 2027 fits that shape: traders expect her to go within months, mostly after October.

Zacharia will still be press secretary at 11:59pm ET on 31 December, with no resignation or removal announced, and both 42% on Polymarket and 48% on Kalshi rate her exit too high. The best case against it is Kalshi's 72% for an exit before July 2027: if she is leaving within months, the rule pays Yes on an announcement alone, "regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect". An announced resignation or removal by 31 December proves this call wrong.