Netanyahu recovers but remains an underdog

A 30% chance leaves him behind Eizenkot at 50% in the same event.

In one line: Netanyahu will not be sworn in again as prime minister after the 27 October vote, and 30% still overstates him.

The contract resolves to the individual sworn in after the 27 October election, not to the largest party or the man who forms the most plausible coalition, and a caretaker does not count. That bar explains why the number matters. No campaign report moved this contract. The price did the moving: Netanyahu's odds fell 6 points over the seven days to 30% on 16 Oct, bottomed at 26% on 14 Oct, then recovered 4 points from that low. The venue's own figure shows +1.0 point in the last 24 hours.

The other four candidates in the same event show no matching recovery. Gadi Eizenkot sits at 50%, Naftali Bennett at 14%, Avigdor Lieberman at 3% and Ofer Winter at 0%. The two leading contracts, Eizenkot and Netanyahu, add up to 80%, and Netanyahu is not the leader of them. A four-point bounce off a seven-day low leaves him a net 6 points lower than a week ago.

The recovery has no reported cause. With no reporting of a campaign development, and with the man who leads the race standing 20 points clear, the bounce stands alone against a flat event. The rule sets a high bar for a candidate the same event prices second.

The call: Netanyahu is not sworn in again as prime minister after the 27 October vote. The 30% price is too high. A single dated observation would prove this wrong: his swearing-in after the election.