Netanyahu's campaign fails to lift his re-election odds

Traders put Eizenkot at 47% to be the next prime minister, with Netanyahu down 9 points this week.

In one line: Netanyahu will not be sworn in again after the 27 October vote, and a 27% price still gives him too much credit.

Benjamin Netanyahu said on 14 October that a pre-emptive strike on Iran was "not convenient" before Israel's 27 October election, Devdiscourse and Moneycontrol reported. The same day he warned Tehran of an "unimaginable" response to any attack, claimed 60% of security goals against the Iranian axis were met, and defended his record on the 7 October intelligence failures by citing Pearl Harbor and 9/11 (Firstpost). He also hit back at Ronen Bar, the former head of the Shin Bet security service, over claims in a lawsuit (the Jerusalem Post). Aryanage reported that he sought Saudi approval, through Washington, for an Israeli role against Yemen's Houthis, and that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman opposes it.

Traders marked him down through all of it. The Polymarket contract on Netanyahu as the next prime minister fell 9 points over the 7 days, from 37% on 8 October to 28% on 15 October, and trades at 27% today, down 3.5pp in the past 24 hours. Gadi Eizenkot leads the same event at 47%. Naftali Bennett trades at 14%, and Itamar Ben Gvir and Ofer Winter at 0%.

The reporting fits the direction of the price. Netanyahu spent 14 October answering for 7 October and for his security record, not setting the terms of the race. By ruling out a strike on Iran before the vote, he removed the one event that might have changed the race before polling day. The Saudi rebuff closes a second route to a pre-election show of strength. The rule adds a hurdle of its own: the market pays only on who is "officially appointed and sworn in" after the election, so Netanyahu needs a governing majority, not just a strong showing.

The call: Netanyahu will not be sworn in as prime minister after the 27 October vote, and 27% still overprices him, with Eizenkot at 47% and Bennett at 14% leaving little room for a Netanyahu coalition. The best case against is that Eizenkot sits below 50%, and an incumbent can still win the bargaining after polling day if the parties behind Netanyahu reach a majority. The official results after 27 October settle it: a parliamentary majority for parties backing Netanyahu, or a climb back above the week's 37% high before the vote, would prove this wrong.

Sources