Bets on CXMT leaving the Pentagon list climb, then pull back

The Chinese chipmaker's chance of removal rose 15 points in a week to 31%, below a 42% high.

In one line: CXMT stays named on the Section 1260H list through 30 June 2027. At 31%, the market overstates its chance of coming off.

Polymarket traders raised the chance that CXMT, a Chinese chipmaker, leaves the Pentagon's list of Chinese military companies from 16% on 8 Oct to a high of 42% on 13 Oct. They have since given back 11 points, and the contract stands at 31%.

The contract pays out only if CXMT is "fully removed" from the list kept under Section 1260H of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2021 by 11.59pm Eastern Time on 30 June 2027. It counts only companies named on the list on 8 June 2026. It has 259 days to run. In the last 24 hours the price slipped 1.0 point, by the venue's own figure.

The week's price path shows buyers pressing the chance of removal higher and then pulling back. Traders paid up to 42% by 13 Oct, then would not hold it. That leaves 31% resting on hope of a revision, not on any decision by the Pentagon, which keeps the list.

CXMT probably stays on the list through 30 June 2027, and 31% overstates the chance it comes off. The case for removal rests on the rally: traders who drove the price to 42% on 13 Oct expect the Pentagon to revise the list before the deadline. They will be right, and this call wrong, if the Pentagon publishes a revised list that omits CXMT before 11.59pm Eastern Time on 30 June 2027.