Traders swing hard on Vučić as Serbia's next prime minister

The contract climbed from 59% on 10 Oct to 79% on 12 Oct, then gave back eight points.

In one line: The National Assembly will not elect and swear in Vučić as Serbia's next prime minister. A 70% price overrates a contract that ranged from 59% to 79% this week.

Traders pushed the odds that Aleksandar Vučić becomes Serbia's next prime minister from 59% on 10 Oct to 79% on 12 Oct, then pulled them back to 70% today. The Polymarket contract has moved 20 points from low to high in one week and settled near the middle. A separate contract on the venue prices Vučić's United Serbia list at 63% to win the most seats in the 2026 parliamentary election.

The contract pays only on a narrow path. Its rule says "the individual must be elected by the National Assembly and be formally sworn-in, resulting in the official formation of a new government", and it excludes any interim or caretaker prime minister. A swing from 59% to 79% and back inside a week suggests traders remain divided on the path, not settled on the outcome. The 70% price sits above the 63% his own list carries to win the most seats, the likeliest road to the office, and that gap is why it asks too much.

The call is that Vučić will not be the next prime minister the National Assembly elects and swears in, and 70% overrates him. The best case for the price is the parliamentary contract, which makes his list favourite to win the most seats in the Assembly that picks the prime minister. If his list wins that vote and the Assembly elects him and swears him in, the YES holder is right. A report by 25 Oct, the venue's listed resolution date, that the Assembly has done both, with the contract settling YES, proves this call wrong.