Russian diesel imports look far less certain than the licence suggests

A licence runs to April 2027, but traders doubt Russian diesel lands in America this month.

In one line: No Russian diesel cargo reaches an American port before November, and even 23% overstates the chance of a shipment inside the month.

Donald Trump's suspension of sanctions on Russian diesel stunned Ukrainian and European officials meeting American envoys near Miami, the New York Times reported on 12 October. The Treasury had issued General License 135 on 9 October, letting Russian-origin diesel into America until 7 April 2027, after Mr Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin. The Print reported the same day that Washington eased the sanctions to relieve fuel-price pressure. Headtopics reported that Susan Collins and other lawmakers oppose the plan, which Mr Trump said would pull prices down by “RECORD NUMBERS”.

Traders on Polymarket give 23% to Russian diesel being imported into America by 31 October. The contract stood at 50% on 9 October and hit 72% on 10 October, the day after the licence. It has since fallen 49 points from that high, touched 18% on 12 October and recovered 5 points from that low. Over the 7 days it is down 27 points, and in the last 24 hours down 9.0 points.

The fall tracks what the contract pays on. The rule resolves Yes “if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States” within its window, so permission counts for nothing until a cargo lands. The licence settles the legal question and leaves the physical one open, with 19 days to go. It also runs to April 2027, which gives an importer no reason to squeeze a first cargo into October while lawmakers attack the deal and Ukraine's allies protest it. Mr Trump is also pressing Ukraine to stop striking Russian refineries, the New York Times reported, and those strikes bear on how much diesel Russia has to sell.

Russian diesel will not be imported into America by 31 October, and 23% still sets the odds too high. The best case for Yes is that the licence is already in force and a trader with a cargo at sea could steer it to an American port before the deadline; the 72% on 10 October priced exactly that. A report of a Russian diesel cargo discharging at an American port before 31 October, or a Yes resolution on 1 November, would prove the call wrong. Without those barrels, the relief Mr Trump promised does not reach diesel buyers in places such as Maine, where headtopics reported prices stay high.

Sources