Trump al-Sharaa contact emerges as a real possibility

A pullback from the week's high shows traders still unsure the two men will talk by 31 October.

In one line: Trump and al-Sharaa will hold a reported conversation, by phone or in person, before 31 October, a likelier outcome than the 60% price allows.

Traders on Polymarket pushed the odds that Donald Trump speaks with Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria's president, by 31 October from 27% on 5 Oct to 60% on 12 Oct. Over the week the price ranged from a low of 20% to a high of 70% on 11 Oct.

The climb was uneven. By the venue's count the price moved +9.5pp in the last 24 hours, yet it sits 10 points below the 11 Oct high. Over the 7 days it is up 33 points, and up 40 points from the low. The contract belongs to a wider event on whom Trump will speak to by 31 October, and it resolves on 1 November, 20 days from now.

The rule sets a low bar. Any verbal exchange counts, in person, by phone or by video call, so long as credible media report it. A single courtesy call meets it, which is why a 20-day window at 60% looks cheap. The 10-point fall from the high shows some traders doubted the peak, but the price kept most of its 33-point weekly gain.

Trump and al-Sharaa will probably speak before 31 October, which the 60% price underrates. The case against the call is the pullback itself: the traders who pushed the price to 70% have already marked it down. The call fails if no credible outlet reports a conversation between the two men by 11.59pm ET on 31 October.