Third-place finisher backs Flávio Bolsonaro as Lula's odds sink to 12%

Augusto Cury endorses Bolsonaro's son for the 25 October runoff after he took 47% in the first round

In one line: Flávio Bolsonaro will beat Lula in the 25 October runoff, and Lula's 12% still overstates his chance of a comeback.

Augusto Cury, who finished third in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, has endorsed Flávio Bolsonaro for the 25 October runoff against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Israel National News reported on 9 October. Mr Bolsonaro took 47% of the first-round vote, exclusive_kz reported the same day. That put him ahead of the incumbent, the AP reported, cited by the Nagaland Post, but short of the majority needed to win outright.

Traders on Polymarket give Lula a 12% chance of winning, down 32 points over the seven days from 44% on 3 October. The price touched 11% on 8 October and has gained 1 point since, though it lost 2.0 points in the last 24 hours. Mr Bolsonaro's contract in the same event trades at 89%. Kalshi prices the same question at 12% for Lula and 88% for Mr Bolsonaro, in line with Polymarket.

The facts and the price point the same way. A candidate on 47% of the first-round vote, now backed by the third-place finisher, starts the runoff close to the half he needs. Polymarket's margin contracts show how traders see the result: they put 49% on a Bolsonaro margin of 4 to 8 percentage points, against 16% on a margin of 8 to 12. Foreign Policy wrote on 9 October that the Bolsonaro family looks likely to retake the presidency.

Lula's best case is a runoff that draws out voters who oppose the Bolsonaros. Thousands of students marched in Rio de Janeiro on 8 October against a Flávio Bolsonaro presidency, the AP reported. Brazil's top judge also ordered his brother to prison in the middle of the runoff, a decision the Rio Times attacked on 9 October for its timing. A late swing of that kind would make the Lula case right, but the first-round count makes it hard to sustain.

Flávio Bolsonaro will win the runoff on 25 October, and at 12% Lula's price still overstates his chance of a comeback. Consensus reporting of the 25 October count naming Lula the winner would prove this wrong. The result decides who governs Brazil with September inflation at its 4.5% ceiling.

Sources