Traders back the US-Iran truce through October despite new strike plans
Odds of no US strike on Iran before 31 October rose 17 points in a week, to 77%
In one line: Trump keeps vetoing strike plans, so no US air or missile strike hits Iran before 31 October. The 77% price underrates that.
The New York Times reported on 8 October that the Pentagon has drafted options for three days of strikes on Iran, and that President Donald Trump has repeatedly vetoed plans to restart the war in recent months. The same day, suspensecrime reported that Tehran rejected demands from Vice-President JD Vance to curb uranium enrichment as the price of ending the seven-month war.
Traders gave more weight to the vetoes than to the plans. The contract pays Yes if no US air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly hits Iran by 11:59pm Iran Standard Time on 31 October. It rose 17 points over the seven days to 77%, and 5.5 points in the last 24 hours. It touched 84% on 8 October, then gave back 7 points. Along the ladder of dates, traders put the truce's odds at 99% through today, 93% through 15 October, 77% through 31 October and 58% through 15 November.
The two reports point different ways, and the price follows the one about the man who decides. A drafted plan is an option that Trump has turned down before. Iran's refusal hardens the stalemate but changes nothing on Washington's side of the decision. The ladder shows traders see the danger gathering over the coming weeks rather than arriving soon. Another reading is that Iran's rejection of the enrichment demands and the Pentagon's active strike planning could break Trump's resolve to veto and bring a qualifying strike before the deadline, which would prove this call wrong.
No US air or missile strike hits Iran before 31 October, an outcome the 77% price still underrates. Trump's record of vetoes is the strongest evidence in the reporting, and nothing reported on 8 October shows him changing course. The other side's best case is that a ready three-day plan and a closed door on enrichment could turn fast if Trump signs off. A reported US strike on Iranian soil before 11:59pm Iran Standard Time on 31 October would prove the call wrong. A strike would restart a war that has run seven months, with Tehran and Washington still apart on the terms to end it.