Traders still put Feijóo ahead for Spain's top job

Feijóo's odds swung between 58% and 89% as Sánchez called a November 29 vote.

In one line: Feijóo wins a confidence vote and takes office after Spain's November 29 election. The 74% price still underrates him.

Pedro Sánchez, Spain's Socialist prime minister, called an early election for November 29 after parliament rejected two decree laws his minority government had put forward to protect tenants, the Ghanaian Times reported on 6 Oct. Sánchez made the call on 5 Oct, bringing the vote forward by 10 months, MENAFN reported. TechTimes reported that parliament was dissolved on 6 Oct, which began an eight-week campaign.

The Polymarket contract on Alberto Núñez Feijóo becoming the next prime minister swung hard around the call. It stood at 89% on 2 Oct, fell to 58% on 5 Oct, the day Sánchez called the vote, and has recovered to 74%. That leaves it down 5 points over the 7 days and down 7.0 points in the last 24 hours. In the same event, Sánchez trades at 24%, Santiago Abascal at 1% and every other named candidate at 0%. The contract pays only if the winner receives a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and is sworn in by March 31, 2028.

The 16-point recovery since 5 Oct suggests the first reaction to the call has largely reversed. The recovery fits the arithmetic: Sánchez still needs a confidence majority he does not now hold. A government that cannot pass its own housing decrees no longer commands the chamber, and Sánchez is asking voters to repair that on November 29. Pressure on his party is also building in court: on 6 Oct the People's Party (PP) asked the National Court to indict the Socialists for illegal financing, bribery and money laundering in the Leire Díez case, Ara reported.

Feijóo will win a confidence vote and be sworn in as Spain's next prime minister after the November 29 election, and 74% underrates him. The best case for Sánchez is the one he is staking the election on, which The Conversation Africa describes: housing protests bring out enough voters to give him the confidence majority he lacked when parliament rejected his tenant decrees. A November 29 count that leaves his side able to win the confidence vote in the Congress of Deputies would prove this call wrong. The winner decides the fate of the housing protections that the dissolution suspended, TechTimes reported on 6 Oct.

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