Traders see the Iranian blockade lasting past October

Traders give an end by 31 October 19%, and an end by year's end 51%.

In one line: Washington makes no official announcement ending or pausing the Iran blockade before 31 October, and the 19% price overstates the chance it does.

Traders have cut the odds that Washington announces an end to its naval blockade of Iran by 31 October. The contract fell from 30% on 30 Sep to 20% on 7 Oct, down 10 points over the 7 days. It touched a high of 31% on 30 Sep and a low of 18% on 4 Oct. The venue now quotes 19%, down 4 points in the last 24 hours.

The other contracts in the event tell the same story. The 15 October contract sits at 10% and the 31 December contract at 51%. Read together, this ladder of dates puts most of the chance of a lifting in November and December, not in the 25 days left on this contract. Since the last digest on 4 Oct, when the price stood at 19%, it has risen by 1 point, so the week's slide came before that date.

The price and the ladder agree, and both point away from a quick reversal. The rule pays on any public, official US announcement of the blockade's end, termination, lifting or suspension, which is a broad trigger. Even so, a reversal inside 25 days would need Washington to drop a policy it reinstated on 13 July. Traders who paid 30% a week ago have already given up most of that hope, and the December contract barely above even shows they doubt it by year's end too.

Washington will not announce an end, lifting or suspension of the Iran blockade before 11:59pm ET on 31 October, and 19% still gives that too much credit. The best case for the other side is the rule itself: a suspension counts, so a short pause to open talks would pay in full. An official US announcement of that kind before 31 October would prove this call wrong. For readers who never trade the contract, it means Iranian ships and their customers stay targeted, and the oil price that USO tracks, up 1.82% on Tuesday, keeps whatever premium the blockade lends it.