Puma Shen gains ground in Taipei mayor market

A twelve-point weekly rise to 28% still leaves Shen far behind Chiang Wan-an at 72%.

In one line: Chiang Wan-an probably wins Taipei's 28 November vote, and Polymarket's 28% for Shen after one week's climb prices him too generously.

Traders on Polymarket lifted Puma Shen's chance of becoming Taipei's next mayor from 16% on 28 Sep to 28% on 5 Oct, a rise of 12 points over the 7 days. Most of the gain came late. The contract fell to a weekly low of 13% on 1 Oct, climbed 15 points to touch 30% on 5 Oct, then eased 2 points from that high. In the last 24 hours the venue records +6.3pp.

The rest of the event still favours his rival. The sibling contract on Chiang Wan-an stands at 72%. Kalshi prices the same race in its own book and lands close by, with Shen, listed there as Shen Bo-yang, at 31% and Chiang at 73%. Hsiao Wen-kan, Kuo Hsi and Lin Chih-cheng sit at 1% each. Both books price the field the same way: Chiang ahead, Shen a distant second, everyone else negligible.

The prices describe a challenger who has gained ground without closing the gap. A contract that sat at 13% on 1 Oct and touched 30% on 5 Oct shows little conviction on either side. Polymarket has already given back 2 points of that climb.

The call: Chiang Wan-an probably wins the 28 November election, and Shen's 28% prices him too generously after one sharp week. The best case against it is that Kalshi, a separate book, puts Shen higher still at 31%, and two sets of traders near the same number are harder to dismiss than one jumpy chart. The call is wrong if the official result of that vote names anyone other than Chiang as Taipei's next mayor, or if Shen's Polymarket price climbs above 40% and holds there through October.