Lula's second-place odds climb before Brazil's first round

Traders give Lula a 40% chance of finishing second, and Kalshi's book sits at 42%

In one line: Lula tops Brazil's first-round count on 4 Oct, so the 40% price on him finishing second overstates the late swing.

Traders on Polymarket now give Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva a 40% chance of finishing second in the first round of Brazil's presidential election, held today. The contract rose 13 points over the 7 days from 25% on 27 Sep. It gained 14.4 points in the last 24 hours on the venue's own figure, after peaking at 43% on 3 Oct.

The other contract in the event shows whom traders see as Lula's rival. Flávio Bolsonaro trades at 62% to finish second, so these prices make the race for first a contest between him and Lula. Kalshi prices Lula second at 42% and third at 4%. Two independent books agree closely on the same question.

The read is that Lula probably still finishes first, and the climb overstates the swing against him. On Polymarket's margin contracts the heaviest price, 46%, sits on a Lula first-round win by less than 5 points, with 12% on a win by 5 to 10 points and 1% on 10 to 15. Traders expect a close race with Lula narrowly ahead. The week's climb moves the second-place price towards an even split without carrying it there, and the contract has given back ground since the 43% peak on 3 Oct.

The call: Lula finishes first in the first-round count, and the 40% price on second place overrates the chance he trails. The other side's best case is the week's 13-point climb, which shows money moving towards a Flávio Bolsonaro plurality; a count with Bolsonaro ahead would prove that money right. The call is wrong if the first-round tally, due before the contract resolves on 5 Oct, puts any candidate ahead of Lula on valid votes. The order of finish decides which name leads Brazil's race for the presidency from tomorrow.