Traders lift Anthropic's 2027 bankruptcy odds seven points in a day

The 2027 contract hit a weekly high of 13%, while later deadlines price far more risk.

In one line: Anthropic will not announce a bankruptcy filing before the end of 2027, and the 13% price overstates that risk.

Traders on Polymarket lifted the chance that Anthropic announces bankruptcy by 31 December 2027 to 13% on 3 Oct. That is up 7 points in the last 24 hours on the venue's own figure. The contract had fallen to a 7-day low of 6% on 1 Oct, so the week's rise of 6 points, from 7% on 26 Sep, came in a single day.

The contract pays on words, not on a court filing. It resolves Yes if Anthropic's chief executive, lawyers or another official representative says through official channels that the company will file, or has filed, for bankruptcy of any kind before 11.59pm ET on 31 December 2027. The same event prices the 2028 deadline at 25% and the 2029 deadline at 28%.

The shape of that ladder matters more than the jump. Traders put most of the risk they see in 2028 and add little for 2029, so the 2027 contract carries the smallest share of their worry. On a separate question, Kalshi traders price an announced Anthropic stockmarket listing at 68% by 1 Jan 2027 and 89% by 1 Mar 2027. A company that traders expect to sell shares to the public is expected to be raising money, and a bankruptcy announcement needs the opposite.

Anthropic will not announce bankruptcy by 31 December 2027, and 13% prices that outcome too high. The other side's best case is the ladder itself: traders who put 25% on 2028 see real strain building, and a reported failed fundraising or missed payment would make them right. The call is wrong if Anthropic's chief executive, lawyers or another official voice announces a filing before 11.59pm ET on 31 December 2027. For readers who will never trade it, the call means Anthropic's next big step is the listing Kalshi traders expect, not a court.