Renan Santos is the market's pick for third in Brazil

Traders lifted his odds of finishing third from 44% to 62% in the week before the 4 October vote.

In one line: Santos takes third in Brazil's first round on 4 October, but less surely than 62% implies, with Cury the rival placed to overtake him.

Traders have made Renan Santos the favourite to finish third in Brazil's first-round presidential vote on 4 October. His Polymarket contract rose from 44% on 25 Sep to 62% on 2 Oct, up 18 points over the 7 days, and added 10.0 points in the last 24 hours. The climb was not smooth. The price fell to a low of 40% on 27 Sep and reached a high of 65% on 1 Oct, 3 points above where it stands now.

The other contracts in the event show the rivals traders think most likely to take third instead. Augusto Cury, at 27%, is the only rival with a real share of the money. Ronaldo Caiado sits at 12%. With Santos at more than twice Cury's price, the market sees a two-man contest for third and Caiado as a distant outsider.

The swing matters more than the level. The contract ran from 40% to 65% inside a week and then slipped 3 points, which shows traders have not settled their view. Santos is the right favourite, but 62% looks full for a price that has moved this far and this fast.

Santos finishes third on 4 October. On this reading, 62% overstates his lead, and an 18-point climb in a week leaves room for Cury to close the gap. Traders moved towards Santos for most of the week, and a price that closes near its peak suggests the move has conviction behind it. The call is wrong if the official first-round count on 4 October puts Cury or Caiado third.