Le Pen climbs to 45% on the 2027 French presidency

A Le Pen win would test the EU's cohesion and France's place in NATO.

In one line: Le Pen's two books sit 4 points apart, 45% on Polymarket against 49% on Kalshi.

Marine Le Pen's contract on the 2027 French presidency rose from 38% on 25 Sep to 45% on 2 Oct, a gain of 7 points over the 7 days, with +2.7 points of that move coming in the last 24 hours, the venue's own figure. No reporting this week bears on the race, and no report came first this week.

The price set its 7-day low of 38% on 25 Sep and its high of 45% on 2 Oct, so the gain accumulated across the whole window. Kalshi prices the same question at 49%. The two books are 4 points apart.

Within Polymarket's own event the rest of the field is nowhere. David Lisnard, the one other candidate in double digits anywhere on the board, sits at 8%; Jordan Bardella, Raphaël Glucksmann and Gabriel Attal are all at 2%; Christine Lagarde and Bruno Retailleau at 1%. If Le Pen has absorbed the 7 points, the money has come from the fringe of the field and from undecided traders, not from a named rival. Bardella at 2% on both venues leaves her the whole of the party's support.

My forecast is that 45% understates the level. The mechanism behind that reading: the candidates who could hold her below 50% in a runoff have barely been priced at all, and the field behind her is thin, so any centre or left consolidation would need a name that does not yet exist on the board. The Polymarket price has not moved on any reported fact, but seven points in seven days is the market's own signal.

The call is that Le Pen wins the first round of the 2027 presidential election, which the 45% price still underrates. What would prove it wrong: Polymarket's Le Pen line falling back below 40% at any point between 1 and 15 November, with no new reporting to explain the drop.