Traders put a Pakistani strike on Afghanistan at 95%

A 32-point rise over seven days leaves 31 days for a strike the rule defines narrowly.

In one line: Pakistan will hit Afghan soil with an air, drone or missile strike before 31 October, as the 95% price expects.

Traders on Polymarket now give Pakistan a 95% chance of striking Afghanistan by 31 October, up 32 points over the 7 days from 63% on 25 Sep. The contract first fell to a 7-day low of 41% on 26 Sep, then rose 54 points from that low to a high of 99% on 1 Oct before easing 4 points to 95%.

Nearly all the gain came at once. The venue reports a rise of 32.5 points in the last 24 hours, against 32 points across the full 7 days. Yes pays if Pakistan carries out a qualifying strike on Afghanistan before 11.59pm Afghanistan Time on 31 October, 31 days from today.

The rule is narrower than the question sounds. It counts only "an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Pakistan, that directly impacts Afghanistan", with air strikes covering bombs, air-to-surface missiles and air-launched drones. Artillery fire across the border, ground raids and clashes between border troops do not qualify on that wording. A price of 95% backs more than hostility between the neighbours: it backs Pakistan choosing aircraft, drones or missiles. The drop from 99% to 95% is the room traders leave for that doubt.

A Pakistani air, drone or missile strike will land in Afghanistan before the deadline, as the 95% price expects. The contract moved 54 points from its 26 Sep low to its 1 Oct high, a pace that signals traders pricing an imminent event, not a slow-building probability. The best case against is the rule itself: if the fighting stays on the ground, the contract pays nothing regardless of casualties or clashes. The call is wrong if no report of a Pakistani air or missile strike on Afghan soil appears by 11.59pm Afghanistan Time on 31 October and the contract settles No on 1 November.