Ohio data centre moratorium looks less probable
Traders cut Ohio's odds to 18% after a spike, as Congress left for the midterms without acting.
In one line: Ohio will not enact a statewide data centre moratorium by 30 June 2027, and even 18% overstates the chance.
Congress left Washington for the midterms with no progress on artificial intelligence, the New York Times reported on 30 September. Senate Democrats blocked a measure that would have encouraged, but not required, states to shield consumers from power-rate rises tied to data centre growth. A day earlier the Times reported that some Republicans in close races had distanced themselves from Donald Trump's push to speed construction of AI data centres, citing rising electricity bills. Neither report is about Ohio.
Traders on Polymarket give Ohio an 18% chance of enacting a statewide moratorium on new data centres by 30 June 2027. That is down 15 points in the last 24 hours and 10 points over the 7 days, from 28%. The contract hit its 7-day high of 36% on 29 September, fell to a low of 17% on 30 September and has since added a point. The other contracts in the event price 10% for a moratorium by the end of 2026 and 32% by the end of 2027.
One reading of the federal stalemate is that it eases pressure on Ohio. The reporting supports the opposite reading at least as well. With Washington offering states nothing on power bills, any relief has to come from statehouses, and the Times shows electricity costs worrying even Republicans. The sharp fall looks more like traders unwinding the 29 September spike than a verdict on Ohio news, and it left the price below where the week began.
The rule sets a high bar: Ohio must enact "a law or constitutional provision" that establishes a binding statewide moratorium, though a pause on "a subset" of new data centres would count. Ohio will not clear that bar by 30 June 2027, and 18% still overrates the chance. The case for yes rests on voter anger over bills, and it would gain force if either Ohio chamber passed a moratorium bill. A signed Ohio law reported before 30 June 2027 would prove this call wrong. Without one, Mr Trump's push to speed data centre building meets no state brake in Ohio, and power bills stay a campaign grievance rather than a statute.