Bolsonaro's first-round odds rise despite scandal

Bribery allegations published days before the vote have not stopped traders lifting his chances.

In one line: Lula tops the first-round count on 4 October; Bolsonaro's 32% overstates his chance of finishing first amid fresh bribery allegations.

Brazilian outlet PlatôBR has published documents alleging bribery, extortion and money laundering in Flávio Bolsonaro's presidential campaign, telesur reported on 30 Sep, days before the 4 October vote. The documents were compiled by Alexandre Santini, Bolsonaro's former business partner. The same day NST reported that Donald Trump is clearly hoping for a Bolsonaro win, and that the candidate has pledged to court Washington alongside other conservative Latin American leaders.

Traders lifted Bolsonaro's chance of winning the most first-round votes to 32%, up 6.5 points in the last 24 hours and 8 points since the 7-day low of 24% on 29 Sep. Over the 7 days the contract has gained 2 points, from 30%. Lula, the only other candidate priced in the event, holds 68%. A related contract gives any candidate 5% to win outright, so traders expect a runoff, and they price Bolsonaro at 69% to finish second.

The scandal and the price point opposite ways, and on this evidence the price is the weaker guide. None of the reporting gives a reason for the 24-hour gain, which mostly recovers the dip to 24% on 29 Sep. Traders appear to have shrugged off the allegations rather than found fresh grounds to back Bolsonaro. With a runoff the probable outcome, the second round carries the presidency, and there traders give him 61% on Polymarket and 59% on Kalshi. Two independent books agree on that question, which leaves the first-round lead as the smaller prize.

Lula wins the most valid votes in the first round on 4 October, and 32% overrates Bolsonaro's chance of passing him with corruption allegations landing in the final days. The best case for the other side is the price itself: traders raised it after the PlatôBR documents came out, and Trump's open backing may count for more with right-wing voters than the allegations. That case is right if the official count by 5 October puts Bolsonaro ahead of Lula. A Lula lead sends Trump's preferred candidate into the runoff from behind, with Brazil's turn towards Washington at stake.

Sources