Traders cut the odds of Milei meeting Trump before September ends

The contract fell 25 points in 24 hours to 63%, as reporting puts Milei on a Paris trip.

In one line: Milei and Trump will not meet in person by 30 September, and the 63% price overstates an encounter no reporting describes.

Argentina's government says Javier Milei will meet Emmanuel Macron when he travels to Paris this week to oversee a forum aimed at luring investment. Qatar Tribune, Kuwait Times and Hurriyet Daily News all carried the report on 28 Sep. On 29 Sep batimes covered his speech to the UN General Assembly, and the New York Times reported his pitch of Argentina as a rules-free haven for artificial intelligence. No report puts Milei in a room with Donald Trump.

The Polymarket contract on a Trump meeting with Milei in September trades at 63%, down 25 points in the last 24 hours. The week's path swings hard. It stood at 46% on 23 Sep, fell to a low of 28% on 27 Sep, then jumped to a high of 89% on 28 Sep before traders pulled back. The previous digest, on 29 Sep, recorded 87%.

The rule pays Yes only if Milei and Trump "are present and interact with each other in person" by 30 September, 11:59 PM ET, as shown by "a consensus of credible reporting". That second condition is the one still unmet, because none of the reporting describes an encounter. Milei's turn at the General Assembly in New York probably explains the run to 89%, since leaders cross paths there. A speech in the same city is not a meeting, and his government has pointed his week towards Paris and Macron.

Milei and Trump will not meet in person by the deadline, and 63% is too high for an encounter no outlet has described. The best case for Yes is that a brief handshake on the sidelines of the General Assembly surfaces in reporting after the fact. A credible report of the two men interacting in person on or before 30 September, before the contract resolves tomorrow, would prove this call wrong. For a reader who never trades it, the answer shows where Argentina's president spends this week: courting investors in Paris, as his government says, or with Trump.

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