Traders price a Trump meeting as Milei heads for Paris

The odds rose 27.5 points in 24 hours to 87%, while reporting places Milei in Paris this week.

In one line: Milei and Trump will not meet in person by 30 September, and the 87% price overstates the chance of an encounter.

Javier Milei, Argentina's president, travels to Paris this week to meet Emmanuel Macron and oversee a forum meant to draw investment to Argentina, Hürriyet Daily News reported on 28 Sep, citing the Argentine government. Free Malaysia Today reported the trip the same day and noted that it comes a week after Milei attacked Europe as a slave to regulation, immigration and 'woke' thinking.

On Polymarket, the contract asking whether Trump meets Milei in September trades at 87%, up 27.5pp in the last 24 hours. The path over the seven days has swung widely. The contract stood at 49% on 22 Sep, fell to a low of 28% on 27 Sep, then recovered 59 points to 87% on 29 Sep, having touched a high of 89% on 28 Sep. Over the seven days it is up 38 points.

The contract pays Yes only if Milei and Trump are 'present and interact with each other in person' between the market's creation and 11.59pm ET on 30 Sep, judged by a consensus of credible reporting. Traders at 87% expect the encounter to be reported within two days. That credible reporting is the one condition the resolution rule has not yet seen, and the only travel reported puts Milei in Paris.

Traders took the contract from 28% to 89% between 27 Sep and 28 Sep, and a reported meeting within two days would prove them right. Milei and Trump will not meet in person by 30 Sep, a chance the 87% price overstates, and credible reporting of the two men together, dated on or before 30 Sep, would prove this call wrong.

Sources