Traders lift odds that the US-Iran truce holds through September

The September 30 contract rose 8 points in a day, though later months price far more risk.

In one line: No American air or missile strike hits Iran before 30 September ends, and the 94% price still sits below that outcome's real odds.

Traders spent the week pushing up the odds that the US-Iran ceasefire survives September. The Polymarket contract pays Yes unless an American air or missile strike hits Iran by 11:59pm Iran Standard Time on 30 September. It rose from 82% on 21 September to 94% on 28 September. It touched a high of 95% on 26 September, fell back to 86% by the time of yesterday's digest, and gained 8 points in the last 24 hours.

The rest of the event draws a different curve. The contract on the ceasefire lasting to 31 October trades at 53%, and the one for 31 December at 33%. Traders see little danger in the two days left. They price a strike before the year ends as more likely than not.

The two readings fit together. Two days is a short window, and traders are pricing a quiet one. The 24-hour rise wiped out almost all of the dip from the 95% high, so whatever worried traders on 27 September has faded. The danger the market fears lies further out, where a longer window leaves more room for a strike.

No US air or missile strike hits Iran before the deadline passes at 11:59pm Iran Standard Time on 30 September, and the 94% price still sits below the true odds. The best case against comes from the October contract: if traders at 53% are right that a strike within a month is close to even, some of that danger could fall inside the next two days. A credible report of a US strike landing on Iran before that deadline would prove the call wrong. For anyone holding an oil fund such as USO, a truce that holds through the month removes one near-term source of a price shock.