Iran keeps the door open to talks after Trump's rebuff

Tehran says Trump's rebuff of its Hormuz offer may not be final, with two days left.

In one line: No senior US-Iran meeting, direct or indirect, happens by 30 September; Tehran is waiting on an answer, and Trump's only public reply was a rejection.

Iran is still waiting on an American answer to its latest offer, which makes a senior US-Iran meeting in the next two days less probable than the 41% price suggests. The New York Times reported on 27 September that Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said President Donald Trump's rejection of Tehran's ceasefire offer might not be Washington's final word, citing contradictory messages. Kesq, carrying a CNN report, said the same day that Iran is still waiting for a "definitive" American answer to its latest proposal. Under that plan Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz within a week and resume nuclear talks.

Traders on Polymarket, a prediction market, marked the odds back up. The contract asking whether American and Iranian officials hold another senior meeting by 30 September rose to 41%, +30pp in the last 24 hours. The path over the week was erratic. It stood at 26% on 22 September, the day Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Araghchi in New York. It jumped to 79% on 23 September and fell to 9% on 26 September. Traders price a meeting by 31 October at 60% and by 31 December at 79%, but doubt it comes in the next two days.

The contract pays on "a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran", so talks through a mediator would count. Iran describes itself as waiting for an answer, not travelling to a meeting, and the only American position on record is Trump's public rejection.

No senior US-Iran meeting, direct or indirect, takes place by 30 September, and 41% overstates the chance. Trump said on 22 September that another meeting "is scheduled in the near future", which remains the strongest case for a meeting. An indirect contact could also be set up fast. A credible report by 30 September of American and Iranian envoys meeting, in person or through an intermediary, would prove the call wrong. Without a meeting, Iran's offer to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week stays unanswered into October.

Sources