Traders now favour Nithya Raman to be mayor of Los Angeles

A 20-point climb over the week puts her at 58%, with Karen Bass at 44%.

In one line: Nithya Raman beats Karen Bass to become mayor of Los Angeles, an outcome the 58% price still underrates; a reported Bass win proves it wrong.

Traders on Polymarket lifted Nithya Raman's chance of becoming mayor of Los Angeles from 38% on 20 Sep to 58% on 27 Sep, a gain of 20 points over the 7 days. The climb ran from a weekly low of 36% on 21 Sep to a high of 59% on 23 Sep. It now sits a point below that high, up 0.7 points in the last 24 hours.

The other side of the race tells the same story. Karen Bass's contract trades at 44% on Polymarket. Kalshi prices the same race and has Raman at 57% and Bass at 42%. When two separate venues price Raman within a point of each other, the move is harder to dismiss as a single-venue artefact. On 22 Sep the contract stood at 43%, and it has gained 15 points since.

The rule set the vote for 2 June and a runoff for 3 November if no one won a majority, and it pays on the winner named by a consensus of credible reporting. Both venues price a contest between two people with the result still open, and the contract resolves on 31 December, 95 days from now. A rise of 22 points from the 21 Sep low, matched on a second venue and held near its peak since, looks like traders changing their minds about the race, not a single large order moving the price.

Raman will probably win the mayoralty, and at 58% the market still underrates her. The best case against is that a move this fast can unwind as fast; if both venues put her back under 50% by 31 October, the week was noise and Bass is the likelier winner. Consensus reporting of a Bass win after the 3 November vote would prove this call wrong.