Gyurov's presidential odds tumble as traders swing to Iotova

The Bulgarian race now looks like Iliana Iotova's to lose, with Gyurov at 16%.

In one line: Iotova wins Bulgaria's presidency by 25 Oct, and Gyurov's 16% still overrates a candidate whose rally to 35% traders reversed within a day.

Traders cut Andrey Gyurov's chance of winning Bulgaria's presidency to 16% on Polymarket by 27 Sep, down 10 points over the 7 days from 26% on 20 Sep. Most of that fall came in one session. The venue shows a drop of 9.5 points in the last 24 hours. On 26 Sep the contract swung between a 7-day high of 35% and a low of 14%, and it has since recovered 2 points from that low.

The other contracts in the event show where the money went. Iliana Iotova's contract stands at 80%, Kostadin Kostadinov's at 2% and Rosen Zhelyazkov's at 0%. The four prices sum close to 100%, so traders see a contest between two people, and Iotova is the clear favourite.

The swing on 26 Sep tells more than the closing level. A contract that runs from 35% to 14% in a day is one where a few traders can move the price far, and where a burst of optimism about Gyurov found no one willing to hold it. The rule counts any second round, so the price covers the whole contest rather than a first-round showing. Traders tested the case for Gyurov and turned it down, and he now sits near the day's low.

Iotova wins the presidency and Gyurov loses. Even at 16%, the market gives him more chance than a week of rejected rallies supports. The best case for him is the 35% touch itself: some traders see a path through a runoff in which he gathers the votes of beaten candidates, and a first round that leaves him close behind Iotova would make that case. The call is wrong if a consensus of credible reporting names Gyurov the winner by 25 Oct, or if his contract climbs back above the 35% of 26 Sep once the first round is counted. The result decides who serves as Bulgaria's head of state.