Traders now lean against an S&P 500 close above 7,745 on Monday

The 7,745 contract fell 16 points in a day, and the strike ladder centres Monday's close near 7,740.

In one line: Monday's 4pm S&P 500 close lands under 7,745; the neighbouring strikes imply the 38% price is generous.

Traders on Kalshi cut the odds that the S&P 500 closes above 7,745 at 4pm on Monday 28 September to 38%, down 16.0 points in the last 24 hours (Kalshi), after the contract swung between 62% and 34% on 25 Sep.

The other strikes in the event form a ladder: separate contracts on the same close, each at a different level. Together they map where traders expect the index to finish in 2 days. They give 86% to a close above 7,680, 76% above 7,705, 49% above 7,740, 35% above 7,750, 15% above 7,800 and 5% above 7,815.

The 7,740 contract at 49% sits above what its neighbours imply: the 7,745 contract, five index points higher, trades at 38% and the 7,750 contract at 35%. The smoother run from 76% at 7,705 to 35% at 7,750 puts the even-odds point below 7,740, and on that reading a close above 7,745 needs the index to beat the market's own central guess. By the same reading, the 38% price on a higher finish sits above what the surrounding strikes imply. A contract this close to the expected finish jumps on small moves in the index.

The S&P 500 closes below 7,745 at 4pm on 28 September. The call is wrong if the index prints 7,745 or above at 4pm on 28 September.