Bitcoin traders cool on a September run to $87,500

The September contract has fallen 61pp from its 94% peak on 21 Sep, with 6 days left.

In one line: Bitcoin is on course to end September without a one-minute Binance high at $87,500; the contract sits at 33% with 6 days left.

Polymarket traders took the chance that Bitcoin reaches $87,500 in September from 8% on 18 Sep to 94% on 21 Sep. They have since cut it to 33%, a fall of 61pp from the peak. The contract pays Yes if any one-minute Binance BTC/USDT candle posts a high of $87,500 or more before 11.59pm ET on 30 Sep.

The rate of decline has eased: the contract lost only 2.0pp in the last 24 hours and still stands 25pp above where it began the 7 days. The rest of the ladder thins fast above this rung: a touch of $90,000 trades at 13% and $100,000 at 1%. On the other side, a dip to $80,000 trades at 24%.

The peak was a forecast, not a touch. The rule settles Yes the moment a candle reaches the level, so a price that reached 94% but not 100% suggests traders believed Bitcoin had not yet touched it. The fall to 33% shows they now think Bitcoin has retreated below that level. The $80,000 dip contract trades at 24%, just 9pp below the chance of a climb to $87,500.

The call is No at 33%, and it is wrong if any Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle records a high at or above $87,500 before 11.59pm ET on 30 Sep.