Peltola's Alaska lead keeps the Senate race contract climbing

A poll from Trump's own pollster puts the Democrat five points up in a state he won big.

In one line: Peltola is the favourite, but one two-way poll and an unsettled Alaska ballot do not earn 79%. Expect 72% or lower by 15 October.

Raw Story reported on 21 September that a new Alaska poll, co-conducted by President Trump's own pollster, shows Democrat Mary Peltola leading Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan by five points head-to-head. The outlet called the result stunning in a state Trump carried by 13 points two years ago.

The contract on a Peltola win sits at 79%, up 5 points on the day. It opened the week at 66% on 16 September and peaked at 82% on 22 September, the day after Raw Story reported the poll. That is a 13-point gain over the week.

The move points the right way. A Republican-aligned pollster finding a Democrat ahead in a Trump-won state is harder to wave off than a friendly survey. But the price rose 13 points in a week that carried one poll, and that poll measures a two-way race. Ketchikan Daily News reported on 21 September that the final slate of candidates was far from settled even after the last primary votes were counted, and that Alaskans will decide the fate of ranked choice voting. A head-to-head number says less when the ballot is still unsettled. The market is pricing the poll as if that question were already answered.

The wider mood helps Peltola at the margin. Laura Loomer, a Trump ally, predicted November will be a bust for the GOP (Newsweek and headtopics, 22 September). The Los Angeles Times reported on 21 September that Democrats need to gain at least four seats, and lose none, to retake the Senate, and a Sullivan loss would count toward that.

The call: Peltola wins more often than not, but 79% runs ahead of the evidence, and the contract should trade at or below 72% by 15 October. This call is wrong if the contract holds at 75% or above through 15 October, or if an independent Alaska poll published by that date shows Peltola ahead by five points or more against the final slate of candidates.

Sources